Premier Smith's approval numbers have climbed amid debates over federal overreach, energy policy and Alberta autonomy. The UCP has also widen its lead over Naheed Nenshi and the Alberta NDP during the same period.
Alberta NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi is claiming Premier Danielle Smith is appealing the court decision freezing Alberta’s independence petition process as a way to “save herself politically.”
That theory might work better if Smith were the one with collapsing numbers. She isn’t.
Danielle Smith is pushing her separatist referendum to save her job.
— Naheed Nenshi (@nenshi) May 18, 2026
We're fighting back to save our country. 🇨🇦 pic.twitter.com/DRpausAzto
Recent polling continues to show Smith’s UCP comfortably ahead of Nenshi’s Alberta NDP.
An Abacus Data poll released in March had the UCP sitting at 49% support compared to 36% for the NDP. Nenshi’s personal favourables were also underwater, with more Albertans holding a negative impression of him than a positive one.
And a month later, Leger’s April 2026 numbers showed the UCP widening its lead to 53% support compared to 36% for the NDP — a 17-point gap that hardly suggests Danielle Smith is clinging to office by filing court appeals.
Meanwhile, Smith’s approval numbers have actually improved among key voter groups as debates over federal overreach, energy policy, and Alberta autonomy intensify.
So no, this doesn’t exactly look like a premier clinging to power by filing a court appeal.
It looks more like a government defending Alberta’s citizen initiative law after a judge squashed a petition process before Elections Alberta could even verify the signatures.
That’s the part Nenshi keeps skating past.
More than 300,000 signatures were reportedly gathered by roughly 7,000 volunteers during a bitter Alberta winter using a legal democratic mechanism created under Alberta law.
It is profoundly disturbing to watch you and your party advocate for silencing citizens who participated in a lawful democratic process simply because you disagree with the issue being raised.
— Eva Chipiuk, BSc, LLB, LLM (@echipiuk) May 18, 2026
It is literally your job to listen to citizens, especially when they are using the…
Whether someone supports independence, opposes it, or thinks the whole thing is nuts is beside the point.
The legal question is whether activist litigants and a judge can shut down the process before the signatures are even counted.
🚨BREAKING: Danielle Smith says the court decision blocking independence is “incorrect & undemocratic” and Alberta will appeal.
— Rise Of Alberta (@RiseOfAlberta) May 13, 2026
Her cabinet will soon decide whether to use its authority to put an independence question on the Oct. 19 referendum ballot. pic.twitter.com/ybDxA3D43D
Smith’s government appealing that ruling is not some desperate Hail Mary for political survival.
The polling simply does not support that narrative.
Frankly, if anyone in Alberta politics should be nervously staring at polling spreadsheets right now, it probably isn’t Danielle Smith.
Verdict
Nenshi’s claim falls apart under even a basic look at the polling.
Smith’s government remains ahead provincewide, while Nenshi continues struggling to broaden support beyond the NDP base.
The appeal is about defending Alberta’s referendum framework and the voting rights attached to it — not rescuing a premier whose political position currently looks far safer than her opponent’s.
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