An export tax would immediately raise costs, reduce returns for producers and tell investors that Alberta’s largest industry could be sacrificed during Ottawa’s next political fight.
Opponents of Alberta independence claim the October 19 referendum is driving away investment. Meanwhile, politicians are openly discussing a much more immediate threat: taxing or restricting Alberta’s energy exports.
Ontario Premier Doug Ford has suggested using Alberta oil to “put pain on the U.S” and former Alberta premier Jason Kenney says export taxes on oil and natural gas should remain on the table.
Alberta NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi has also criticized Premier Danielle Smith for refusing to use energy exports as leverage.
An export tax would immediately raise costs, reduce returns for producers and tell investors that Alberta’s largest industry could be sacrificed during Ottawa’s next political fight.
Alberta exported nearly $111 billion worth of oil to the United States in 2025. Threatening that trade creates far more tangible investment risk than allowing Albertans to cast a ballot.
The referendum asks what Alberta’s future should be. An export tax threatens the industry paying Alberta’s bills today.
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