Recent figures show Alberta's economy is growing faster than forecast and faster than most of Canada.

 

Opponents of Alberta independence have repeatedly warned that merely discussing separation risks frightening investors, creating economic uncertainty and damaging the province.

But if independence talk is driving investment out of Alberta, the latest numbers aren't showing it.

Premier Danielle Smith announced this week that Alberta is now forecasting a $2-billion surplus for 2026-27, putting the province on track for its sixth consecutive budget surplus.

The Alberta Heritage Savings Trust Fund is also projected to reach $35 billion in 2027, which the government says would essentially double its value from when Smith became premier.

And those numbers are arriving in the middle of Alberta's most serious independence debate in decades.

Hundreds of thousands of Albertans have signed petitions connected to the independence question, third-party campaigns have been operating across the province for months, and Albertans are scheduled to vote in a provincial referendum on October 19.

If the very existence of that debate were enough to destabilize Alberta's economy, some evidence of that should be appearing by now.

Instead, Smith says Alberta's economy is growing faster than forecast and faster than most of Canada, while the province continues to attract new investment.

Alberta isn't experiencing collapsing government revenues or suddenly plunging into deficit. The government is forecasting another surplus, the Heritage Fund is growing, and the province says economic growth and investment are outperforming expectations.

That means claims that the current referendum campaign itself is frightening away investment should be measured against what's actually happening in Alberta's economy today. 

The independence conversation is getting louder.

So far, Alberta's economy doesn't appear to be listening.