On September 28, Premier Danielle Smith said recent polls showing about 22% of Albertans intending to vote Option 2 is “still too high for my comfort.” She credited a “major reach out on the part of Ottawa” under Prime Minister Mark Carney and said “this kind of bilateral federalism is exactly how our country is supposed to work" for the low figure.

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Smith is mainly talking about the 2026 Canada–Alberta MOU on pipeline construction and some of the recent federal policy changes delaying climate initiatives. She has also listed federal environmental plans dropped since Carney took office.

What Smith is talking about is 18 months of talk, and no concrete action. The pipeline is still a proposal. B.C. and coastal First Nations were not at the table for the MOU and remain opposed. The tanker-moratorium problem did not vanish, and Prime Minister Mark Carney continues to talk about process but not progress.

The same deal keeps a rising carbon price path ($115 by 2030, $130 by 2035, higher still by 2040). That is not a repeal of the federal climate architecture that drove a decade of Alberta anger. It is a renegotiated version of it.

“Dropped regulations” is not the same as Ottawa giving up the power to reimpose them, rewrite impact assessment, or condition energy projects on federal climate targets. Promises, designations, and MOUs are not the same thing as steel in the ground or a permanent shift in who controls Alberta’s resource economy. Albertans are more than skeptical about the deal at this point.

Smith is right that 20–25% on Option 2 is not a fringe. It is an outlier among polls that show higher support in general for Option 2. She is not right that Carney’s outreach has already repaired the relationship those voters are reacting to.

If the case for remaining is “look how well bilateral federalism is working,” the evidence so far is an unfinished pipeline file and a carbon price that still climbs. That is a thin basis for telling more than a quarter of the province their disheartenment is now outdated.

Alienation in Alberta has been building for decades. Nothing of substance has changed in the regulatory relationship between the province and the federal government. The prime minister has offered smiles and handshake agreements but nothing concrete. If indeed support for Option 2 in the referendum is declining, it is for factors other than the tight relationship developing between Smith and Carney.