If the federal government tried to stifle resource exports from Western provinces, Saskatchewan will likely be scheduling an independence referendum while Albertans will overwhelmingly choose Option 2 on Question 10 on October 19.
In a posting on X, Senator Tony Dean said, “I [sic] we are heading into a tariffs shitstorm with the US it’s time to look at cutting back on potash, oil and uranium exports. The US imports 97% of its potash and most of that comes from Canada. This is a collective struggle for Canada which will take support from all provinces”
As Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government continues to fail to strike lasting trade deals with the United States, some Eastern Canadian politicians such as Doug Ford and now Tony Dean feel it would be wise to sacrifice Western Canadian resources to try to pressure the USA.
Conventional oil and bitumen are concentrated in Alberta, with significant volumes also in Saskatchewan. Uranium and potash are primarily Saskatchewan resources. These are not “national” assets sitting in a federal warehouse; they are provincial assets under provincial regulatory regimes. Under Canada’s Constitution, natural resources located within a province belong to that province.
The federal government could apply tariffs to Western resource exports as Pierre Trudeau did with his National Energy Program in the 1980s. The consequences of that plan were economic devastation for oil-producing provinces and a sharp spike in support for Western independence that carries on to this day.
If the federal government tried to stifle resource exports from Western provinces, Saskatchewan will likely be scheduling an independence referendum while Albertans will overwhelmingly choose Option 2 on Question 10 on October 19.
There is little appetite in the West for federal incursions on their resource exports.
Alberta and Saskatchewan have repeatedly made clear that they view their resources as core to their economies and their constitutional rights. Telling those provinces that Ottawa expects them to forgo revenue and jobs so the federal government can run a trade war is more likely to produce defiance than solidarity.
Beyond the domestic havoc which would be created through federal interference into provincial jurisdiction and economic development, such a move would likely only inflame the trade war further. Western resources have been somewhat shielded from the tariffs compared to Eastern ones at least partially because Western Canadian politicians haven’t been antagonizing President Trump in the first place.
Perhaps the good senator and Premier Ford should take a course or two in diplomacy before threatening to use Western Canadian resources to inflame the situation further.
If they really insist on trying to withhold or tax exports to the USA, they can start in their own province and see how that all works out.
Alberta and Saskatchewan’s resources are not federal bargaining chips.
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