A poll commissioned by Calgary’s Chamber of Commerce indicated that almost half of Alberta’s businesses would consider leaving the province if citizens choose the second option on the unity-related referendum question this fall. The claim is dubious for several reasons.

It was from an online survey of existing Chamber members conducted over the course of June 8 and June 22. Even with two weeks to respond, only 137 Chamber members participated in the poll, which represents only 7% of the membership. 

In Calgary, over 96% of businesses are not members of the Chamber of Commerce. The Chamber has been viewed more as a woke extension of city hall than an advocate for local businesses, thus the extremely low membership rates. The 137 online respondents to the poll represent 0.24% of Calgary businesses. The selection bias in the sampling is off the charts.

The language in the poll was weak, asking members if they were “very or somewhat likely” to relocate their businesses if Alberta became independent.

The vote being held on October 19 is a non-binding question asking to continue pursuing the path to independence. It’s hard to believe established businesses would pick up shop and move to another province or country in light of the results of the referendum. Businesses tend to be agnostic about the political landscape as long as they remain profitable. Unless, of course, the businesses rely on subsidies from one government or another.

Capital and business flight from Alberta due to the independence movement remains purely speculative and anecdotal. There is no hard evidence that it has been happening, or it will happen.

The evidence of capital flight due to the policies of Ottawa is incontrovertible, however. RBC reported that over $1 trillion in capital left Canada between 2015 and 2024. Most of that capital flight was in the energy sector, and it's directly attributed to Canada’s poor investment climate. In a report more directly related to Alberta, the Fraser Institute found that investment in Alberta’s energy sector had dropped from $58 billion in 2014 to $16 billion in 2021 due to federal policies and regulations.

Alberta is suffering from lost investment opportunities, but it has nothing to do with the independence movement. The risks to the business community come from Ottawa’s policies rather than any instability caused by a referendum.

The Calgary Chamber poll is of little consequence and doesn’t offer a realistic picture of the investment climate in Alberta. It should be remembered that the head of Calgary’s Chamber of Commerce insisted that forcing restaurants to maintain vaccine passports would be good for business and that Calgary should be embarrassed by its cowboy/oil culture. Her economic instincts have always been questionable, at best.