The irony is that Solberg accuses independence supporters of making assumptions while promoting a report that relies on assumptions about debt negotiations, borrowing costs, transition arrangements, tax policy, federal asset division, and economic behaviour that nobody can know today.
"The separatist movement continues to make broad sweeping fantastical assumptions about an Alberta utopia," suggested Michael Solberg, a former Stephen Harper staffer and founder of federalist group Vote To Stay, as he promoted a report by former Alberta finance official Lennie Kaplan claiming an independent Alberta would face a $27.2 billion first-year deficit and crushing debt costs.
The report is built on assumptions that are every bit as speculative as the scenario it criticizes.
Separatist leaders claim Alberta can leave Canada for $6 billion. This is pure fantasy.
— Vote to Stay (@VotetoStayAB) June 17, 2026
Former Alberta Finance official Lennie Kaplan projects an independent Alberta could face a $27.2 billion deficit in its first year alone – before accounting for many of the promises… pic.twitter.com/KJFuPsWQj1
Kaplan's analysis begins with a major premise: that Alberta would automatically inherit roughly $174 billion of federal debt and pay about $10 billion annually to service it. Yet there is no formula in Canadian law that dictates how debt would be allocated after a successful independence negotiation.
According to the Fraser Institute, Alberta contributed a net $244.6 billion more to Ottawa than it received back between 2007 and 2022 alone. Alberta's fiscal relationship with the rest of Canada is not a trivial factor that can simply be ignored, it's a key driver in separatist sentiment.
Even Kaplan acknowledges that many of the numbers remain unknown and that his analysis will be updated as more information becomes available.
The irony is that Solberg accuses independence supporters of making assumptions while promoting a report that relies on assumptions about debt negotiations, borrowing costs, transition arrangements, tax policy, federal asset division, and economic behaviour that nobody can know today.
Albertans absolutely deserve facts before they vote.
They also deserve to know the difference between a projection, a negotiation outcome, and a certainty.
Signup
The legacy media is counting on one thing: that you'll see the false headline and never see the correction. Don't let them get away with it.
Sign up for email updates from Alberta Fact Check and we'll send every new fact check straight to you the moment it's published. You'll always know what was said, who said it, and exactly where they got it wrong. It's free, it takes ten seconds, and it's the easiest way to stay one step ahead of the spin.