Alberta's energy sector is valuable enough to be Canada's leverage against Washington, but Ottawa has spent years treating it as an industry to be phased out.
As Ontario Premier Doug Ford continues urging Canada to take a more aggressive approach toward the United States — including floating the idea of restricting energy exports — it's worth asking why Alberta workers should bear the cost of another province's trade strategy.
Ford has repeatedly suggested using Canadian energy exports as leverage in the trade dispute with the U.S., despite serving as Ontario's premier, not Canada's trade minister.
At the same time, the latest trade estimates suggest Alberta has the least to lose from the newest round of U.S. tariffs.
University of Calgary economist Trevor Tombe estimates just 1.2% of Alberta's exports would be affected by the new 50% U.S. tariffs scheduled for August 19. British Columbia (13.7%), Ontario (10.8%) and Quebec (9.0%) face substantially greater exposure.
There's a lot of variation across #cdnecon in exposure to the new 50% U.S. tariffs (on August 19). Here's a preliminary estimate of the share of exports affected (based on HS6, so a slight over-estimate). BC/ON/QC most exposed. Others far less so. pic.twitter.com/SMSWOuMBUj
— Trevor Tombe (@trevortombe) July 21, 2026
A separate analysis using more detailed HS8 trade classifications puts Alberta's exposure even lower, at 0.8%, compared with 12.0% for British Columbia, 9.1% for Quebec and 7.6% for Ontario.
Meanwhile, Alberta has taken a noticeably different approach to the trade dispute.
Unlike several provinces, Alberta did not broadly pull American liquor from store shelves or advocate cutting off energy exports. Alberta and Saskatchewan were the only provinces to leave U.S. liquor on store shelves while other provinces maintained their bans.
The media is responsible for much of the insane behavior & thinking from the Left.
— Ryan Gerritsen🇨🇦🇳🇱 (@ryangerritsen) July 23, 2026
Just listen to this - Danielle Smith isn’t willing to cut off oil & gas to the U.S.? Which is in her own self interest? Ok because the rest of Canada doesn’t benefit from it either?
Let’s commit… pic.twitter.com/NJ3dTcQxeI
For years, Ottawa has pursued policies intended to shrink Canada's oil and gas sector through pipeline cancellations, emissions caps, tanker restrictions and proposed production limits.
Now, many of the same political voices argue Alberta's oil and gas industry should be Canada's most powerful economic weapon in a trade war with the U.S.
If Alberta's energy sector is valuable enough to be Canada's leverage against Washington, why has Ottawa spent years treating it as an industry to be phased out?
And if Alberta's economy is among the least exposed to the new tariffs, why should Alberta workers absorb the economic risk created by another province's preferred negotiating strategy?
The numbers show Alberta faces among the lowest exposure to the new U.S. tariffs while provinces pursuing the most confrontational response face significantly higher exposure. Ottawa cannot credibly argue that Alberta's oil and gas industry should be phased out while simultaneously relying on it as Canada's most effective bargaining chip. If Alberta's energy is a strategic national asset today, it was a strategic national asset before the trade dispute began.
And it should have always been treated that way.
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