As Ottawa continues to stymie attempts to increase pipeline capacity to coastal ports, Alberta moves closer to its southern trading partner, which continues to purchase the majority of the province’s exports.

 

The Canada–United States–Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) isn’t dead, but with President Trump declining to renew it in its current form, Canada won’t see trade stability with its largest trading partner for years to come. With annual reviews of the deal to be held, it will be difficult for companies to do cross-border business as long-term planning and budgeting become nearly impossible.

Prime Minister Carney’s inability to secure a lasting deal with the United States will strengthen the case for Alberta’s independence advocates.

Negotiating with a leader as unpredictable as Donald Trump is an unenviable task, and it’s hard to say if any Canadian leader may have been able to make a trade deal with him.

Mark Carney took on the mantle of prime minister for the deal, though, and he must assume responsibility for the continued trade instability with the United States. His provocative 2025 “elbows up” campaign may have led to electoral success, but it was coloured by a strong streak of anti-Americanism and soured the atmosphere for trade negotiations.

Carney is viewed by many Albertans as the prime minister chosen by Eastern Canada. If he is to endear himself to voters in the Prairie provinces, he must have some victories in his pocket, and so far, he is failing on the trade front. Many in the independence movement will see the lack of success on the trade front as another failure of the Canadian establishment to manage the country.

Alberta’s relationship with the U.S. has never been as chilly as it is with the federal government. Alberta has maintained offices in Washington among other American cities and has worked to negotiate its own trade deals for years. As Ottawa continues to stymie attempts to increase pipeline capacity to coastal ports, Alberta moves closer to its southern trading partner, which continues to purchase the majority of the province’s exports.

One of the defences of federalism has always been that Alberta benefits in trade negotiations in being part of a larger economic unit with Canada. With the abysmal record on the trade front from Carney so far, though, more Albertans will be asking themselves what the point of the federation is.

The trade war with the U.S. may not be hitting the economy of Alberta as hard as it has with manufacturing-based industries in Eastern Canada, but the ongoing tense relationship is still tiring Albertans, and those seeking stability and resolution of trade issues are having a hard time seeing a bright future under Carney’s guidance.

The failure to extend the CUSMA deal will contribute to growing discontent in Alberta and will strengthen the independence movement.