Refusing to address increasing independence sentiment would likely deepen alienation in Alberta.
Former Progressive Conservative cabinet minister from the Alison Redford government, Doug Griffiths, is warning that holding a non-binding referendum to consider pursuing independence will cause dire harm. He claims Quebec’s referenda from the 1980s and 1990s are still causing consequences today.
The narrative from federalists has been shifting from encouraging Alberta citizens to vote for federalism to opposing allowing citizens to vote in a referendum at all. They are using fear tactics to try to convince people the process itself is dangerous and that citizens shouldn’t be tasked with making democratic decisions within it. Using fear is a prime tool in making this case.
Post-1995 data undercuts the doom narrative. Quebec’s real GDP per capita grew faster than the rest of Canada (roughly 42% versus 34% from 1995 onward), narrowing the gap with the national average. Unemployment fell more sharply, the employment rate (especially for women) rose above the Canadian average, and social assistance rates improved relative to the country.
Quebec has had some economic challenges, but the drag came from higher taxes, larger government, language restrictions that reduced Montreal’s appeal as a headquarters city, and demographic patterns, not the referendum day.
Refusing to let people vote breeds deeper alienation. Western discontent did not appear in 2025; it has accumulated for decades under policies that many Albertans view as unfair and economically damaging. Suppressing a referendum does not make those grievances vanish; it entrenches the view that the system cannot be challenged. If citizens can’t express their views in a democratic process, they may seek other means of change.
If Quebec had not been able to hold referenda on independence, the FLQ may never have vanished from the scene. The consequences of an organization such as that still operating would indeed last for generations.
Leaving the unity question unresolved in Alberta will cause more uncertainty than holding an open question on the issue will. What is emerging now is a matter of trust. Members of the established political order don’t trust citizens with the ability to directly make decisions on matters of importance such as potential independence. That illustrates more than ever why referenda are so important.
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