Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNRL) became the latest major energy company in Alberta to pause investment, citing uncertainty in the regulatory environment. The announcement says CNRL will not advance any mid- to long-term oil sands expansion projects until the MOU details are formalized. Three major projects have now been put on hold, which had targeted production increases adding up to 350,000 bpd and would have been worth billions of dollars in investment.

Enbridge put a planned 250,000 bpd crude oil pipeline expansion on hold at the end of July due to regulatory uncertainty, and oilsands giant Suncor’s CEO said at the beginning of August they won’t be planning any expansions in anticipation of new pipeline infrastructure being constructed.

Cenovus CEO Jon McKenzie was scathing of Carney and Smith’s plans last June, calling the pipeline + Pathways package “unfinanceable.”

While federalist advocates keep trying to make a case that uncertainty due to the upcoming referendum will chill investment into Alberta, companies with actual skin in the game are saying otherwise. They are making it clear that the status quo is what is keeping their wallets closed and have been agnostic on the unity issue.

Trust in the federal government is low, and the MOU between Premier Smith and Prime Minister Carney to build a mostly nationalized pipeline to the coast hasn’t instilled confidence in the energy sector. They aren’t spending any more money until they see pipe going into the ground.

A vote for option 2 on question 10 in the upcoming Alberta referendum may cause some uncertainty in the investment market in Alberta for a time. There is certainty in the current federal arrangement, however. That certainty is that Alberta remains uncompetitive in the world energy markets due to federal regulations.