Only one of the two leaders has put themselves into a position where their political future rides on the success of the pipeline, and that’s Danielle Smith.
Calgary Herald columnist Don Braid wrote a piece implying that pipeline construction and expanded oilsands development are all but assured because Alberta Premier Danielle Smith and Prime Minister Mark Carney have both created a relationship of mutual dependence with each other.
He implies that if either leader pulls out of the proposal to build a nationalized pipeline to the West Coast, it would be politically suicidal for both. This contention is quite wrong.
There’s no doubt the two political leaders have made a pact, but it’s far from unbreakable. Both leaders have expended political capital on the projects, but in different ways.
Premier Smith has put her neck on the line and must demonstrate tangible progress on a new line soon. Skeptical supporters are tired of what appears to be a never-ending series of announcements, MOUs and provincial concessions to Ottawa while no real progress is being made with construction and private investors have fled.
Patience is wearing thin with her party members, and if progress stalls or remains as slow as it is, she could share the fate of her predecessor, Jason Kenney, at the hands of the membership.
Mark Carney, on the other hand, has made no such gamble.
He has upset the environmentalist wing of his party by even considering supporting a new pipeline, but he remains strong in the polls outside of Alberta. The prime minister can and will rag the puck on the pipeline. He is in no hurry to see progress on it, and it will cost him no support if it fails.
He will just fall back on the line his predecessor used after regulating the Energy East pipeline to death and claim there isn’t an economic environment for construction. At best, he is inspired to keep the illusion of support alive until October 20 to try to quell support for independence until the referendum is held.
Meanwhile, Alberta taxpayers will be stuck with a white elephant of a carbon capture project, increasing carbon taxes, a tanker ban entrenched on the West Coast, and a “No More Pipelines Act” still on the federal books, ensuring one of the largest oil and gas deposits on earth atrophies on the vine due to federal regulations.
Only one of the two leaders has put themselves into a position where their political future rides on the success of the pipeline, and that’s Danielle Smith.
When the assumed risk is that lopsided, the pact is far from unbreakable from the perspective of the prime minister.
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